Study Finds That COVID-19 Changed the Course of Life Expectancy Across Wealthy Nations
Nikhil Prasad Fact checked by:Thailand Medical News Team Aug 18, 2026 1 hour, 4 minutes ago
Five years after COVID-19 first disrupted the world, its effects on human longevity appear far more persistent than a temporary pandemic shock. A major international analysis of 34 high-income countries found that life expectancy in 31 countries remained below expected levels in 2024.
Life expectancy remains below expected levels across most wealthy nations five years after the COVID-19 pandemic began
The researchers were from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Nuffield College, Nuffield Department of Population Health and Department of Sociology at the University of Oxford; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge; and Estonian Institute for Population Studies at Tallinn University.
Researchers Compared Reality with a World Without the Pandemic
Rather than simply comparing current life expectancy with 2019, researchers calculated what life expectancy would probably have been if mortality trends observed before the pandemic had continued.
They called the difference between actual and predicted life expectancy the “life expectancy deficit.” This approach matters because life expectancy had generally been improving before COVID-19. Merely returning to an earlier level therefore does not necessarily mean a country has recovered the progress it would otherwise have achieved.
The study examined mortality data from 2000 through 2024 and produced expected mortality forecasts for 2020 to 2024.
Four Very Different Pandemic Patterns Emerged
Researchers identified four broad patterns. Some countries suffered their greatest deficits early in 2020 or 2021 and then gradually recovered. Another group experienced devastating second-wave losses, particularly during 2021, followed by stronger rebounds.
Countries including Japan, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland and Taiwan largely delayed major mortality losses until 2022. A fourth group, including France, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Portugal and Austria, experienced smaller but more persistent deficits.
Importantly, this Thailand
Medical News report highlights that countries suffering the sharpest mortality shocks were sometimes among those recovering most strongly afterward, yet their accumulated five-year losses remained substantial.
United States Recorded the Largest Overall Deficit
The second-wave group experienced an average peak life expectancy deficit of 2.65 years and an overall five-year deficit of 1.20 years.
Across all 34 populations, the United States recorded the largest five-year deficit at 1.73 years, followed by Bulgaria at 1.49 years and Latvia at 1.47 years. By comparison, Denmark recorded a 0.43-year deficit, Norway 0.56 years and Japan 0.57 years.
In 2024 alone, statistically significant deficits remained in 12 countries, including the United States, Japan, Norway, Finland, Israel, the Netherlan
ds and Taiwan.
Middle-Aged Deaths Had an Important Impact
The age analysis revealed that mortality among people aged 40 to 59 played an especially important role in several countries suffering major second-wave losses, including the United States and parts of Eastern Europe. Early-deficit countries generally experienced losses concentrated more heavily among people aged over 60.
Men also generally experienced larger life expectancy deficits than women. Researchers found only limited evidence that unusually high mortality among frail older adults was followed by enough lower mortality in subsequent years to explain the recovery.
Conclusion
The findings suggest that COVID-19 produced a multi-year disruption to life expectancy rather than a brief mortality shock. Continued monitoring will be essential to determine whether persistent infection risks, healthcare disruption, chronic disease and wider social consequences permanently alter longevity trends or whether countries eventually regain their expected trajectories.
The study findings are currently published as a medRxiv preprint and have not been peer reviewed.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.02.25.26347112v2
Read Also:
https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/coronavirus
https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/long-covid
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