Australian Researcher Warns That SARS-CoV-2 New NB.1.8.1 Variant is Exhibiting High Growth Potential
Nikhil Prasad Fact checked by:Thailand Medical News Team May 06, 2025 3 hours, 52 minutes ago
Medical News: A New Contender Emerges in the COVID-19 Landscape
Australian researcher Mike Honey has raised concerns about the rapid rise of the SARS-CoV-2 variant NB.1.8.1, which is showing significant growth potential globally. In a detailed thread posted on X on May 5, 2025, Honey highlighted the variant’s strong growth advantage over the currently dominant LP.8.1.* lineage, predicting a potential crossover as early as May 8, 2025.
https://x.com/Mike_Honey_/status/1919343258020216927
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Australian Researcher Warns That SARS-CoV-2 New NB.1.8.1 Variant is Exhibiting High Growth Potential
This development comes as the world continues to monitor the evolution of COVID-19, with new variants posing ongoing challenges to public health systems.
Thailand
Medical News has already been warning about the new SARS-CoV-2 variant in the last few days and more studies are expected to be published online covering the fusogenic aspects of this new variant and also the cell tropism it exhibits and the new human host receptors that it can also bind with.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-the-new-sars-cov-2-variant-nb-1-8-1-is-the-most-dangerous-so-far-and-poses-a-major-threat
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/nb-1-8-1-the-new-sars-cov-2-variant-racing-to-dominate-is-a-new-wave-coming
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/researcher-warns-that-news-sars-cov-2-variant-nb-1-8-1-is-rapidly-spreading-across-multiple-countries
Tracking the Growth of NB.1.8.1
This
Medical News report delves into the genomic sequencing analysis shared by Honey, which is based on data from gisaid.org, encompassing 30,584 sequenced genomes up to April 17, 2025. The analysis compares NB.1.8.1 with other emerging variants like LF.7.7.2, XFG, and XFJ, alongside the dominant LP.8.1.* sub-lineage, LP.8.1.1. NB.1.8.1 has demonstrated a remarkable growth advantage of 7% per day (equating to 49% per week) over LP.8.1.* variants. Initially reported from Hong Kong, where it reached a frequency of 93%, NB.1.8.1 has also shown sustained growth in countries such as Canada, the United States, Singapore, and South Korea.
Genetic Makeup and Evolutionary Path
NB.1.8.1 is a descendant of XDV.1.5.1, a recombinant of XDE and JN.1, with XDE itself being a
recombinant of GW.5.1 and FL.13.4—both derived from the XBB lineage. This makes NB.1.8.1 the last current variant with non-JN.1 ancestry. Its evolutionary path includes key spike mutations: XDV.1 added F456L, XDV.1.5 introduced G184S and K478I, NB.1 added T22N and F59S, and NB.1.8 incorporated Q493E, a mutation also seen in the KP.3.1 FLuQE variant, indicating convergent evolution. Finally, NB.1.8.1 added the A435S mutation, further enhancing its adaptability.
Comparing Competing Variants
Honey’s analysis also examines other variants in the race for dominance. LF.7.7.2, which has been successful in Canada (8%) and the US (5%), is descended from the FLiRT JN.1.16.1 lineage and carries spike mutations like T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S, K444, and H445P. However, its growth has slowed recently. XFG, a recombinant of LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, has shown promise with a 7% growth in France and 6% in the US, particularly in Quebec and Belgium. XFJ, a recombinant of LF.7 and LS.2, has risen to 4% in France and Spain but is also losing momentum. Despite these contenders, Honey identifies NB.1.8.1 as the leading candidate due to its consistent growth across multiple regions.
Challenges and Future Monitoring
Honey cautions that recent sample sizes are small, which may skew results, and global sequencing data is heavily weighted toward wealthier nations, potentially underrepresenting other regions. Nevertheless, the strong growth advantage of NB.1.8.1 suggests it could drive higher infection waves than LP.8.1.* if its trajectory continues. Honey plans to continue monitoring the situation, emphasizing the importance of global collaboration in tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants. He also credits other variant hunters for insights on new lineages and the provision of interactive dataviz tools for further exploration, underscoring the need for vigilance as NB.1.8.1 gains ground.
For the latest COVID-19 News, keep on logging to Thailand
Medical News
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https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/coronavirus
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