U.S. CDC Claims COVID-19 Infections Are Not Rising but Can We Really Trust the Numbers?
Nikhil Prasad Fact checked by:Thailand Medical News Team Jun 21, 2025 3 hours, 11 minutes ago
Medical News: While the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) asserts that COVID 19 infections are not rising in the United States, many experts and observers are beginning to question the accuracy and transparency of these claims. According to CDC’s own data from the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA), no states are currently experiencing “growing” transmission, with most labeled as either “not changing” or “declining.”
https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-modeling-and-forecasting/rt-estimates/index.html
But in a post-pandemic world increasingly driven by political motives and underfunded public health infrastructure, how reliable are these metrics?
U.S. CDC Claims COVID-19 Infections Are Not Rising but Can We Really Trust the Numbers?
The CDC’s interpretation is based on the reproductive number Rₜ—essentially the estimated rate at which the virus spreads. Yet this number is generated by opaque modeling processes that the general public—and even many scientists—have little access to. And while the agency claims infections are stable, emergency department visits and test positivity rates, although low, have seen week-to-week fluctuations.
We at Thailand
Medical News are witnessing that many countries are underreporting cases or using delayed data streams, and the U.S. may be no exception when it comes to selective reporting or systemic blind spots.
Glossed-Over Data or Inconvenient Truths
Digging into the numbers, the U.S. CDC says national test positivity is only 2.9%, and that COVID-related emergency department visits remain around 0.3%.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
But how accurate are these figures in an environment where most testing is now home-based and never reported to authorities? And what about rural areas or states with chronically underfunded health departments—how complete is the data coming from them?
Furthermore, while the Rₜ value is marketed as a key predictive tool, it's not immune to manipulation. It can be adjusted by shifting assumptions about population immunity, vaccine uptake, or behavior—many of which are poorly measured or based on outdated inputs. The CDC’s rosy projections may reflect more about the models than the reality on the ground.
Public Fatigue or Willful Negligence
It’s no secret that the public is tired of hearing about COVID-19 and government officials—eager to declare the pandemic over—may be taking advantage of this fatigue to soften or suppress negative developments. As of 2025, millions of Americans are still grappling with long COVID, yet this is barely mentioned in t
he agency’s weekly updates. The CDC admits to over 47,000 deaths per year from COVID-19—yet insists the virus is “under control.” Would the same language be used if another infectious disease caused such numbers annually?
Vaccination rates are also plummeting. Only 23% of U.S. adults have received the updated booster, and uptake among the most vulnerable—those over 65—is dismally low. If the CDC is so confident that infections are not increasing, why the continued push for boosters? Is it protection or profit that drives these contradictory messages?
New Variants Downplayed Despite Global Warnings
The emergence of Omicron subvariant NB.1.8.1, nicknamed “Nimbus,” has been quietly acknowledged by the CDC, with little urgency. While symptoms like “razor blade throat” are reported globally, the agency insists hospitalizations are steady. But in the absence of widespread testing and genomic surveillance, how would we even know if another wave is building?
Independent health organizations and journalists have warned that U.S. variant tracking has significantly declined. Without comprehensive sequencing and timely reporting, it’s not just possible—but likely—that significant spread is being missed entirely.
The Bigger Question
The U.S. CDC claims the current phase of the pandemic is manageable. But the same agency once said vaccinated individuals could not transmit the virus, that masks were unnecessary, and that herd immunity was within reach. Many of those statements have been walked back or proven wrong. Why should the public blindly trust them now?
Skepticism is not cynicism—it’s accountability. And in the case of COVID-19, where health, policy, and corporate interests intertwine, blind faith in government data may be more dangerous than the virus itself.
Until data collection improves and public health agencies are transparent, independent verification from global reports and whistleblowers may be the only way to know what’s really going on.
For the latest COVID-19 News, keep on logging to Thailand
Medical News.
Read Also:
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-surges-in-spain-with-positivity-rates-at-14-8-percent-and-lethality-rates-for-hospitalized-patients-at-7-6-percent
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/italy-faces-rising-covid-19-infections-in-early-summer-surge
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/taiwan-reports-surge-in-covid-19-deaths-and-icu-admissions-as-prolonged-covid-19-wave-shows-no-signs-of-peaking
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-cases-spike-in-bangladesh-as-new-omicron-subvariants-spread-rapidly
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