LATEST! Study Shows That Current 14 Day COVID-19 Quarantine Policies Used By Most Governments Unreliable! SARS-CoV-2 Can Incubate Up To 34 days!
: Scientist from Trinity College Dublin have in a new study have found an updated accurate estimate of the incubation period of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the pathogen that causes the COVID-19 disease to be anything from one to up to 34 days!
The study findings contradicts initial estimates made during the early stages of the pandemic that claimed the incubation periods ranged from around 4 to 7 days. This was initially proposed by proposed by certain substandard research by the Chinese government which was later adopted by the WHO as well.
The study findings also indicate that all current quarantine protocols are not reliable and worse there are some countries planning to reduce quarantine periods to between 10 to 5 days as a result of desperation for the tourist dollar as they are incompetent to re-strategize their local economies to generate monies from other industries.
The study findings are published on a preprint server and are currently being peer-reviewed. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20216143v1
Thailand Medical News had already made warnings as early as February 26th
that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus incubation periods could be much longer based on subsequent studies from other reliable Chinese research entities.
There are also speculations mounting that as the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus evolves and mutates, the incubation periods could be further stretched as the virus is finding ways to ‘exploit’ the host for its own long term survival and spread.
Numerous reports have emerged since the early days of the pandemic, showing documented proof that the incubation periods can be longer than what was initially estimated.
Currently, many governments are planning their mitigation strategies based on a maximum incubation period of 14 days.
Dr Prakashini Banka and Professor Dr Catherine Comiskey from Trinity College Dublin have conducted a modeling study highlighting the variability in this period, including the potential for incubation that extends beyond 14 days.
A highly accurate estimate of the incubation period distribution for SARS-CoV-2 is essential for modeling the virus's spread and the effectiveness of control measures.
Dr Banka and Professor Comiskey warn that since the incubation period may be longer than initially estimated, detailed surveillance of self-isolation periods and other new protective measures is now needed.
Initial early estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation period ranged from 4.0 to 6.4 days, but since then, several studies have estimated that incubation periods range from one to 34 days.
It should be noted that when an epidemic results in both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, it becomes difficult to establish disease prevalence and transmission.
Dr Banka told Thailand Medical news, "Mathematical modeling of the effective reproductive number R of an epidemic, the spread of infection, and the subsequent decisions on planning and mitigation is fully dependent on accurate and up to date estimates of the key modeling parameters.”
Considering the improvements in surveillance and monitoring since the first cases were identified, Dr Banka and Professor Comiskey have now conducted a scoping review and meta-analysis of the parameters of the global incubation period of COVID-19.
The study’s primary aim was to provide an updated estimate of the incubation period distribution that will help improve modeling estimates of the effective reproductive number R and, in turn, estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic cases.
The study team searched five databases, including CINAHL, MEDLINE, PUBMED, EMBASE, ASSIA, and Global Index Medicus for studies published between January 1st, 2020, and July 27th, 2020.
Upon screening the articles, 64 were identified and included, covering a total of 45,151 people aged 0 to 90 years, with a median age of 43 years.
The detailed meta-analysis found that the minimum incubation period ranged from 1 to 9 days and the maximum incubation period ranged from 4 to 34 days. The mean incubation period (based on 30 studies) was 6.71, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from 1 to 12.4 days.
Importantly a confidence interval (CI) is an estimate that indicates the range of values that the actual value could lie within. Therefore, the CI helps to quantify the uncertainty of an estimate when the true value cannot be known.
Significantly the median incubation period (based on 58 studies) was 6 days, with an interquartile range (IQR) of 1.8 to 16.3.
Importantly the IQR is a measure of where the middle 50% of values lie in a data set, indicating where most values lie. The smaller the IQR, the closer the data are to the median, while the larger the IQR, the further the data are spread from the median.
Dr Banka and Professor Comiskey say this study has found that the mean incubation period may be significantly longer than has previously been estimated.
The study team said, "The study findings highlight the variability in the mean period and the potential for further incubation beyond 14 days
The study team says it is essential to maintain an accurate and up-to-date estimate of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation period as the virus continues to spread so that mitigation measures and advice to the general public can be properly planned.
The team added, "It is equally essential that the mitigation strategies on affected communities and hospital planning requirements that are determined from modeling scenarios are based on reliable and accurate global estimates of the incubation period.”
They concluded, "There is an ongoing need for detailed surveillance on the timing of self-isolation periods and related measures protecting communities as incubation periods may be longer."
The study findings coincided with numerous global cases of travellers under quarantine developing symptoms and also of cases where tourists after being quarantined and were released to the local communities had developed symptoms leading to the false notion that they had contracted the COVID-19 disease locally and that there were local transmissions.
The study findings highlight the urgent need for governments to review their policies and make the necessary additional prolonged adjustments in order to effectively control the COVId-19 crisis.
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