BREAKING! 3.39 Billion Individuals Have Already Been Infected With SARS-CoV-2 With About 15.1 Million COVID-19 Severity Deaths Till November 2021!
A new international study conducted by researchers from COVID-19 Cumulative Infection Collaborators which comprises of more than 110 scientists from over 27 different research entities and universities around the world has shockingly found that that from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019 till about the mid of November 2021, more than 3.39 Billion individuals have been infected and in some cases re-infected with SARS-CoV-3 virus and about 15.1 million people have died globally due to COVID-19 severity not including excess deaths related to COVID-19!
Forget about COVID-19 infection and death rates from sites like Worldometers and John Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard, as since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have been fed fake news and also distorted data and studies about the SARS-CoV-2 virus as those controlling the COVID-19 narratives prefer that the masses really do not know the true seriousness of the virus and the pandemic and where it is actually heading to! Governments of various countries spanning from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, South Africa, India, China, Thailand etc have not been forthcoming with the actual data on daily COVID-19 infections and deaths! Thailand Medical News
has been warning about this and also about data and studies being concealed about emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, about re-infection rates, about the emerging changes in the virus pathogenicity, about viral persistence and also about the dangers of long-term health issues.
The study utilizing a novel approach led by the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington-USA has not yet included the impact from the Omicron wave that started in late November 2021 and the current BA.2 subvariant surges. But should that also be considered, the numbers would be astronomical and it would also show that re-infections are actually occurring at a more higher rate than thought!
Updated, accurate and comprehensive estimates of SARS-CoV-2 daily infection rates, cumulative infections, the proportion of the population that has been infected at least once, and the effective reproductive number (Reffective
) are essential for understanding the determinants of past infection, current transmission patterns, and a population's susceptibility to future infection with the same variant.
Though several studies have estimated cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections in select locations at specific points in time, all of these analyses have relied on biased data inputs that were not adequately corrected for.
The study team aimed to provide a novel approach to estimating past SARS-CoV-2 daily infections, cumulative infections, and the proportion of the population infected, for 190 countries and territories from the start of the pandemic to Nov 14, 2021. This approach combines data from reported cases, reported deaths, excess deaths attributable to COVID-19, hospitalizations, and seroprevalence surveys to produce more robust estimates that minimize constituent biases.
The study team produced a comprehensive set of global and location-specific estimates of daily and cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections through Nov 14, 2021, using data largely from Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, MD, USA) and national databases for reported cases, hospital admissions, and reported deaths, as well as seroprevalence surveys identified through previous rev
iews, SeroTracker, and governmental organizations.
The study team corrected these data for known biases such as lags in reporting, accounted for under-reporting of deaths by use of a statistical model of the proportion of excess mortality attributable to SARS-CoV-2, and adjusted seroprevalence surveys for waning antibody sensitivity, vaccinations, and reinfection from SARS-CoV-2 escape variants.
The team then created an empirical database of infection–detection ratios (IDRs), infection–hospitalization ratios (IHRs), and infection–fatality ratios (IFRs).
To estimate a complete time series for each location, the study team developed statistical models to predict the IDR, IHR, and IFR by location and day, testing a set of predictors justified through published systematic reviews. Next, the team combined three series of estimates of daily infections (cases divided by IDR, hospitalizations divided by IHR, and deaths divided by IFR), into a more robust estimate of daily infections.
The study team then used daily infections to estimate cumulative infections and the cumulative proportion of the population with one or more infections, and they then calculated posterior estimates of cumulative IDR, IHR, and IFR using cumulative infections and the corrected data on reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Lastly, the study team converted daily infections into a historical time series of Reffective
by location and day based on assumptions of duration from infection to infectiousness and time an individual spent being infectious. For each of these quantities, the study team estimated a distribution based on an ensemble framework that captured uncertainty in data sources, model design, and parameter assumptions.
Shockingly, the study findings showed that global daily SARS-CoV-2 infections fluctuated between 3 million and 17 million new infections per day between April, 2020, and October, 2021, peaking in mid-April, 2021, primarily as a result of surges in India.
Between the start of the pandemic and Nov 14, 2021, there were an estimated 3·80 billion (95% uncertainty interval 3·44–4·08) total SARS-CoV-2 infections and reinfections combined, and an estimated 3·39 billion (3·08–3·63) individuals, or 43·9% (39·9–46·9) of the global population, had been infected one or more times. 1·34 billion (1·20–1·49) of these infections occurred in south Asia, the highest among the seven super-regions, although the sub-Saharan Africa super-region had the highest infection rate (79·3 per 100 population [69·0–86·4]).
The high-income super-region had the fewest infections (239 million [226–252]), and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania had the lowest infection rate (13·0 per 100 population [8·4–17·7]). The cumulative proportion of the population ever infected varied greatly between countries and territories, with rates higher than 70% in 40 countries and lower than 20% in 39 countries.
Interestingly, there was no discernible relationship between Reffective and total immunity, and even at total immunity levels of 80%, the team observed no indication of an abrupt drop in Reffective, indicating that there is not a clear herd immunity threshold observed in the data.
The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a staggering impact on the world up to the beginning of the omicron (B.1.1.529) wave, with over 40% of the global population infected at least once by Nov 14, 2021. The vast differences in cumulative proportion of the population infected across locations could help policy makers identify the transmission-prevention strategies that have been most effective, as well as the populations at greatest risk for future infection.
The study findings might also be useful for targeted transmission-prevention interventions, including vaccine prioritization. The statistical approach to estimating SARS-CoV-2 infection allows estimates to be updated and disseminated rapidly on the basis of newly available data, which has and will be crucially important for timely COVID-19 research, science, and policy responses.
The study findings were published in the peer reviewed journal: The Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00484-6/fulltext
The study team developed a novel approach to estimating past COVID-19 daily infections along with cumulative infections and the overall proportion of a region’s populations reporting one or more infections.
The study team used a seven-step ensemble model framework to derive a comprehensive global estimate of daily and cumulative COVID-19 infections through the duration of the pandemic.
The study team first compiled a dataset of reported SARS-CoV-2 infections, total deaths related to the infections, and hospitalizations. Subsequently, they defined SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys to be included in the dataset of cumulative infections. This was followed by the creation of an empirical database of infection-detection ratios (IDRs), infection-hospitalization ratios (IHRs), and infection-fatality ratios (IFRs).
Detailed statistical models were used to evaluate the IDR, IHR, and IFR according to the location and day of SARS-CoV-2 case diagnosis, thus estimating a complete timeline of infections for each region. The team subsequently combined the estimates of daily cases divided by IDR, related hospitalizations divided by IHR, and deaths divided by IFR to estimate the number of daily infections accurately. This combined time series was used to evaluate the cumulative infection cases, the cumulative proportion of the total population reporting one or more infections, and the posterior estimates of cumulative IHR, IDR, and IFR.
All reported daily infections were converted into a time series of effective reproductive numbers (Reffective
) according to location and day of infection diagnosis. The estimates calculated by the team took into account all ages and genders for 190 countries and territories, 21 regions, seven super-regions across the globe, and their COVID-19-related data from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic up to November 14 2021.
The research findings showed that approximately 3.80 billion SARS-CoV-2 infections and reinfections were reported globally from the beginning of the pandemic to November 14, 2021.
Worryingly among these, almost 1.5 billion cases were from South Asia, the highest number of infections out of the seven super-regions, while the highest infection rate of 79.3 per 100 individuals was found in the sub-Saharan region of Africa.
It should be noted that many were falsely led to believe that the African continent was not impacted much by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Lack of testing, unscrupulous governments and a total disregard for human life were among the factors that led to false reporting!
It was found that in the super-region of central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, the infection rate was 78.4. Furthermore, the infection rate was 74.3 in South Asia, 64.1 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 62.7 in North Africa and the Middle East, and 13.0 in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania.
Interestingly, the super-regions with higher incomes had an infection rate of almost 26.0 and approximately 239 million infections.
The study findings showed that globally, the cumulative proportion of the total population infected once or more times with SARS-CoV-2 was 13.7% on October 1, 2020, which rose to 24.1% on February 15, 2021. Furthermore, the study noted that over a third of the world’s population was exposed to SARS-CoV-2 post the surge of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in India. This led to 43.9% of the global population being exposed to the virus at least once.
Although only about 5.6 million COVID-19-related deaths have been reported till November 14 2021, approximately 15.1 million deaths, with a rate of 195 deaths per 100,000 people, have been estimated to be a result of COVID-19 severity.
This estimated death rate was less than one per 100,000 people in countries including New Zealand and China, while the same was 1,125 in Bolivia. A total of 23 countries, including Mexico, Brazil, Italy, the USA, and India, had a few states with an estimated death rate of over 450 per 100,000.
Importantly, the IDR posterior estimates showed that 44.6% of COVID-19 infections were found in super-regions with high incomes, which included 18 countries and parts of Italy, Canada, Spain, and the USA.
An average of 10% of infections were reported in countries in eastern Europe, central Europe, central Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, and less than 10% of the infections were found in the rest of the super-regions. The highest IFR and IHR were calculated in countries with a higher number of older individuals like Japan, while the lowest IFR and IHR values were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa.
This new data showed that the significant differences noted in the cumulative proportions of infected individuals across regions could prove critical in developing location-specific COVID-19 prevention policies. The researchers believe that the present study could also play an important role in targeted transmission-prevention interventions, like the prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines.
It should be more interesting in coming months as besides having been lied to by those controlling the COVID-19 narratives on daily COVID-19 infections and deaths, the world has also not been properly briefed about the issues of how ineffective the current nasal or saliva PCR test are let alone the rapid antigen test kits, about the various SARS-CoV-2 variants and subvariants that have emerged and are posing a threat, about the true issues of viral persistence, about the how ineffective and even dangerous some of the approved COVID-19 therapeutics are and about the issue of long term health issues especially the ones that contribute to fatal outcomes and excess deaths not forgetting about the risk of accelerated and aggressive cancers and neurodegenerative diseases! Re-infections and co-infections which are going to be a norm is also concerning.
For more on the real truths about the dangers of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the pandemic, keep on logging to Thailand Medical News